Thread · 4 stories · Aug 22 – Aug 26
SemiAnalysis put $11T of AI capex on the table with $5T borrowed, Dwarkesh raised a sovereign-default scenario, and buyers admitted double ordering.
Jump to timeline ↓In one week of late August the AI buildout stopped being a capex story and became a credit story. A Bernstein survey found roughly half of data-center buyers double ordering equipment; Dylan Patel modelled $11 trillion of capex through 2029 with over $5 trillion of it borrowed.
Dwarkesh Patel took the forecast to its conclusion — a "second Volcker shock" of sovereign defaults — while Patel argued the compute itself would end up concentrated in just two labs.
